Archive for January, 2014

January 28th 2014

Personalization Is Back: How to Drive Influence by Crunching Numbers

Personalization Is Back: How to Drive Influence by Crunching Numbers

By: Eric Siegel, Ph.D., Founder, Predictive Analytics World
Originally published at information-management.com


Standard predictive analytics does not directly address what is the greatest challenge faced by marketing and healthcare: Across large numbers of individuals, deciding who to treat in a certain way.

Yes, you heard me correctly. Predictive analytics still needs a certain tweak before it’s designed to optimize organizational activities.

Let’s take a step back. The world is run by organizations, which serve us as individuals by deciding, for each one, the best action to take, i.e., the proper outgoing treatment:

TREATMENTS: Marketing outreach, sales outreach, personalized pricing, political campaign outreach, medication, surgery, etc.

That is, organizations strive to analytically decide whom to investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate.

Organizations will be more successful, saving more lives or making more profit—and the world will be a better place—if treatment decisions are driven to maximize the probability of positive outcomes, such as consumer actions or healthcare patient results:

OUTCOMES: Purchase, stay (retained), donate, vote, live/thrive, etc.

In fact, the title of my book itself includes a list of such outcomes: Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die.

But this book title—and predictive analytics as a field in general—may lead you astray by implying the best way to improve the probability of these actions (or, alternatively, the probability of averting them, in the case of the latter two, lie and die) is to predict them. However, predicting an outcome does not directly help an organization drive that outcome. Instead, treatment decisions are optimized when organizations predict something completely different from outcome or behavior:

WHAT TO PREDICT: Whether a certain treatment will result in the outcome.

Click here to read the full article in Predictive Analytics Times.

 

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January 13th 2014

Journal of Marketing Analytics review of “Predictive Analytics”

I was honored to have my book, Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die reviewed by Richard Boire (of the Boire Filler Group) in the Journal of Marketing Analytics. Here is an excerpt from the review.

This book is really the first book on data mining or predictive analytics that attempts to communicate the impact of predictive analytics to our society at large. Historically, the rationale for not reaching out to the general audience was that data mining and predictive analytics were specialized areas of expertise that would only be of interest to its practitioners and academics. There was no real sense of its tremendous significance within our everyday lives and more importantly, the benefits that were conferred by this discipline. The knowledge/information revolution has changed the paradigm and how we view this new discipline. This book does an excellent job in reinforcing the growing impact of this discipline as the author, Eric Siegel, in what is often referred to as a very dry topic, transforms it into a discipline with wide appeal and interest among all sectors of society.

Examples abound throughout the book in all sectors as the author explores the impact of predictive analytics on everyday facets all of us face during the course of our normal day…

This book is a must read for the normal lay person presuming there is interest in how society can best use information in our evergrowing Big Data world. At the same time, the seasoned practitioner will appreciate the real-world examples.

Click here to read the full review at Journal of Marketing Analytics (paid access only).

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