By: Eric Siegel, Founder, Predictive Analytics World
In anticipation of his upcoming conference presentation, A Success Story: Sales and Revenue Forecasting through Predictive Analytics, at Predictive Analytics World San Francisco, March 29-April 2, 2015, we asked Dominic Fortin of TD Insurance a few questions about his work in predictive analytics.
Q: In your work with predictive analytics, what behavior do your models predict?
A: The models are predicting sales, cancellations, renewals for general insurance. Units and premiums are forecasted, as well. Twenty-three variables are predicted in 92 variances (region, product, sales channel, insurer, etc…), each level with its own specificities, creating 2,116 different models. The models encompass all the changes to the business (rate change, new project, marketing investments). The innovation was that we were able to create generalized models without having to create 2,116 models independently.
Q: How does predictive analytics deliver value at your organization? What is one specific way in which it actively drives decisions?
A: It allows us to not only to do our sales & revenue budget, to forecast our upcoming results but also to do scenarios on initiatives (e.g. effect of a rate change, etc…). This capability helps the company to make sound decisions on business initiatives.
Q: Can you describe a successful result, such as the predictive lift of your model or the ROI of an analytics initiative?
A: We had models in the past based on excel, they were doing "the job" on predicting our sales & revenue. The new models add more flexibility and rapidity and lower the risks associated with a manual excel based forecast.
Q: What surprising discovery have you unearthed in your data?
A: There was no real surprise. We mastered our data well, it is more the capability to forecast at a more granular level that allows us to be more precise rather than trying to predict at high level.
Q: Sneak preview: Please tell us a take-away that you will provide during your talk at Predictive Analytics World.
A: A take-away is the assistance to think about how this development method could be used to develop a large number of models for your business domain.
Don't miss Dominic Fortin’s conference presentation, A Success Story: Sales and Revenue Forecasting through Predictive Analytics, at Predictive Analytics World San Francisco, on April 1, 2015 at 3:55-4:15 pm. Click here to register for attendance.
By: Eric Siegel, Founder, Predictive Analytics World