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10 months ago
Predicting the President: Two Ways Election Forecasts Are Misunderstood

  Originally published by Big Think When it’s a presidential election year, speculation is in the cards. It’s the national pastime. Everyone wants to predict who’ll win. But, man, did people mismanage their own expectations leading up to the 2016 presidential election, when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. There seemed to be more surprise than when you shake hands with one of those electric shock gags. This was due in no small part to the misinterpretation of election forecasts. There are two common misconceptions, and correcting them comes down to the fundamental idea of what a probability is.

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