Revised and Updated January 2016 — and now in paperback

Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die
The #1 bestseller in multiple Amazon categories for months on end

Predictive Analytics Book: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die "What Nate Silver did for poker and politics, this does for everything else. A broad, well-written book easily accessible to non-nerd readers."

—David Leinweber, author, Nerds on Wall Street: Math, Machines and Wired Markets

"This book is an operating manual for 21st century life. Drawing predictions from big data is at the heart of nearly everything, whether it's in science, business, finance, sports, or politics. And Eric Siegel is the ideal guide."

—Stephen Baker, author, The Numerati and Final Jeopardy: The Story of Watson, the Computer That Will Transform Our World

With a foreword from Thomas H. Davenport, coauthor of Competing on Analytics.

Book Overview:

"The Freakonomics of big data."

—Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of; former lead analyst at Capital One

Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages

An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a "how to" for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques.

Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die.

Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections.

How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn.

Predictive analytics unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate.

In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction:

  • What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession.

  • Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves.

  • Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights.

  • Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company.

  • How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated — and Hillary for America 2016 plans to calculate — the way to most strongly persuade each individual.

  • Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism.

  • How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy!

  • How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job.

  • How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison.

  • 183 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn,, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more.

How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more.

Predictive analytics transcends human perception. This book's final chapter answers the riddle: What often happens to you that cannot be witnessed, and that you can't even be sure has happened afterward — but that can be predicted in advance?

A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a consumer of it — or consumed by it — get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.

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Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die

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Praise for the Book:

"A mesmerizing and fascinating study."

— The Seattle Post-Intelligencer

"This is Moneyball for business, government, and healthcare."

— Jim Sterne, founder, eMetrics Summit; chairman, Digital Analytics Association

"Simultaneously entertaining, informative, and nuanced. Siegel goes behind the hype and makes the science exciting."

— Rayid Ghani, Chief Data Scientist, Obama for America 2012 Campaign

"Predictive Analytics is not only a deeply informative dive into a topic that is critical to virtually every sector of business today, it is also a delight to read."

— Geoffrey Moore, author, Crossing the Chasm

"The Freakonomics of big data."

— Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of; former lead analyst at Capital One

"The future is right now — you're living in it. Read this book to gain understanding of where we are and where we're headed."

— Roger Craig, record-breaking analytical Jeopardy! champion; CEO, Cotinga

"Littered with lively examples..."

— The Financial Times

"Siegel is a capable and passionate spokesman with a compelling vision..."

— Analytics Magazine

"A must read for the normal lay person..."

— Journal of Marketing Analytics

"A clear and compelling explanation of the power of predictive analytics, and how it can transform companies and even industries."

— Anthony Goldbloom, Founder and CEO,

"Both sophisticated and fully accessible to the non-quantitative reader. It's got great stories, great illustrations, and an entertaining tone."

— From the book's foreword by Thomas H. Davenport, coauthor, Competing on Analytics

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