3 weeks ago
AGI is not a milestone

Originally published on AI SNAKE OIL, May 1, 2025.

With the release of OpenAI’s latest model o3, there is renewed debate about whether Artificial General Intelligence has already been achieved. The standard skeptic’s response to this is that there is no consensus on the definition of AGI. That is true, but misses the point — if AGI is such a momentous milestone, shouldn’t it be obvious when it has been built?

In this essay, we argue that AGI is not a milestone. It does not represent a discontinuity in the properties or impacts of AI systems. If a company declares that it has built AGI, based on whatever definition, it is not an actionable event. It will have no implications for businesses, developers, policymakers, or safety. Specifically:

1. Even if general-purpose AI systems reach some agreed-upon capability threshold, we will need many complementary innovations that allow AI to diffuse across industries to realize its productive impact. Diffusion occurs at human (and societal) timescales, not at the speed of tech development.

2. Worries about AGI and catastrophic risk often conflate capabilities with power. Once we distinguish between the two, we can reject the idea of a critical point in AI development at which it becomes infeasible for humanity to remain in control.

3. The proliferation of AGI definitions is a symptom, not the disease. AGI is significant because of its presumed impacts but must be defined based on properties of the AI system itself. But the link between system properties and impacts is tenuous, and greatly depends on how we design the environment in which AI systems operate. Thus, whether or not a given AI system will go on to have transformative impacts is yet to be determined at the moment the system is released. So a determination that an AI system constitutes AGI can only meaningfully be made retrospectively.

Nuclear weapons as an anti-analogy for AGI

Achieving AGI is the explicit goal of companies like OpenAI and much of the AI research community. It is treated as a milestone in the same way as building and delivering a nuclear weapon was the key goal of the Manhattan Project.

This goal made sense as a milestone in the Manhattan Project for two reasons. The first is observability. In developing nuclear weapons, there can be no doubt about whether you’re reached the goal or not — an explosion epitomizes observability. The second is immediate impact. The use of nuclear weapons contributed to a quick end to World War 2. It also ushered in a new world order — a long-term transformation of geopolitics.

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