John F. Elder
Ph.D., CEO and Founder
Elder Research, Inc.
The Best and the Worst of Predictive Analytics: Predictive Modeling Methods and Common Data Mining Mistakes
A free copy of John Elder's book Statistical Analysis and Data Mining Applications is included.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Intended Audience: Interested in the true nuts and bolts
Knowledge Level: Familiar with the basics of predictive modeling.
The Instructor will give out USB copies of the notes.
Predictive analytics has proven capable of enormous returns across industries – but, with so many core methods for predictive modeling, there are some tough questions that need answering:
- How do you pick the right one to deliver the greatest impact for your business, as applied over your data?
- What are the best practices along the way?
- And how do you avoid the most treacherous pitfalls?
This one-day session surveys standard and advanced methods for predictive modeling.
Dr. Elder will describe the key inner workings of leading algorithms, demonstrate their performance with business case studies, compare their merits, and show you how to pick the method and tool best suited to each predictive analytics project. Methods covered include classical regression, decision trees, neural networks, ensemble methods, uplift modeling and more.
The key to successfully leveraging these methods is to avoid “worst practices”. It's all too easy to go too far in one's analysis and “torture the data until it confesses” or otherwise doom predictive models to fail where they really matter: on new situations.
Dr. Elder will share his (often humorous) stories from real-world applications, highlighting the Top 10 common, but deadly, mistakes. Come learn how to avoid these pitfalls by laughing (or gasping) at stories of barely averted disaster.
If you'd like to become a practitioner of predictive analytics – or if you already are, and would like to hone your knowledge across methods and best practices, this workshop is for you!
What you will learn:
- The tremendous value of learning from data
- How to create valuable predictive models for your business
- Best Practices by seeing their flip side: Worst Practices
- Workshop starts at 9.00am
- First AM Break from 10:00 - 10:15
- Second AM Break from 11:15 - 11:30
- Lunch from 12:30 - 1:15pm
- First PM Break: 2:00 - 2:15
- Second PM Break: 3:15 - 3:30
- Workshops ends at 4:30
Attendees receive a course materials book and an official certificate of completion at the conclusion of the workshop.
John F. Elder, Ph.D., CEO and Founder, Elder Research, Inc.
Dr. John F. Elder heads a data mining consulting team with offices in Charlottesville, Virginia and Washington DC. Founded in 1995, Elder Research, Inc. focuses on scientific and commercial applications of pattern discovery and optimization, including stock selection, image recognition, text mining, biometrics, drug efficacy, credit scoring, cross-selling, investment timing, and fraud detection.
John obtained a BS and MEE in Electrical Engineering from Rice University, and a PhD in Systems Engineering from the University of Virginia, where he's an adjunct professor, teaching Optimization or Data Mining. Prior to 13 years leading ERI, he spent 5 years in aerospace defense consulting, 4 heading research at an investment management firm, and 2 in Rice's Computational & Applied Mathematics department.
Dr. Elder has authored innovative data mining tools, is active on Statistics, Engineering, and Finance conferences and boards, is a frequent keynote conference speaker, and is General Chair of the 2009 Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining conference in Paris. John's courses on data analysis techniques – taught at dozens of universities, companies, and government labs – are noted for their clarity and effectiveness. Dr. Elder was honored to serve for 5 years on a panel appointed by the President to guide technology for National Security. His book on Practical Data Mining, with Bob Nisbet and Gary Minor, will appear in May 2009.