5 years ago
Wise Practitioner – Predictive Analytics Interview Series: Chip Hart, Physician’s Computer Company and Karl Rexer, Rexer Analytics

By: Jeff Deal, Conference Chair, Predictive Analytics World for Healthcare

In anticipation of their upcoming conference presentation at Predictive Analytics World for Healthcare Las Vegas, June 16-20, 2019, we asked Chip Hart, Physician’s Computer Company and Karl Rexer, Rexer Analytics, a few questions about their deployment of predictive analytics. Catch a glimpse of their presentation, Is My Patient Here? The Value of Predicting No-Shows in Physician Practices, and see what’s in store at the PAW Healthcare conference in Las Vegas.

Q: In your work with predictive analytics, what area of healthcare are you focused on?

A: Our primary focus is on independent pediatric practices. Independent pediatricians are the “mom and pop stores” of medicine, even though many of the practices are quite large and sophisticated. They are under constant pressure from insurance companies, hospitals, and government mandates, yet they remain dedicated to providing quality care for children. It’s a pleasure and honor to work for customers who don’t put money first.

Q: What outcomes do your models predict?

A: We predict whether a patient will miss a medical appointment. The data for the business and behavior of medicine is a giant map with “Here be dragons!” written around the little area we’ve explored.  In general pediatrics, one of those unexplored and misunderstood territories is the concept of “missed visits.” Patients make appointments, are even reminded of them a few days before…and then don’t show up. A pediatrician only has a certain number of appointment slots every day and when one goes missed, it means a clinical opportunity is lost – as is important revenue. Pediatricians make so little money as a rule that the difference between a 5% no-show rate and a 15% no-show rate can close a practice.

Q: How does predictive analytics deliver value at your organization? What is one specific way in which it actively drives decisions or impacts operations?

A: PCC is in the business of providing this kind of insight and intelligence to our customers – they have neither the time nor the expertise to examine themselves this way.  If we can identify the primary predictors of no-show behavior and adjust the results even a tiny amount, the impact on a practice’s bottom line is remarkable.

Q: Can you describe a successful result, such as the predictive lift of your model or the ROI of an analytics initiative?

A: On the surface, it’s an easy math problem. Reducing a practice’s no-show rate could increase the income of a pediatric practice by $60,000 a year per physician (perhaps doubling the doctor’s takehome income). More importantly, though, it represents 100s of opportunities to provide needed vaccines, developmental and behavioral screening, and other important clinical services.

Q: What surprising discovery have you unearthed in your data?

A: That many of the myths about no-shows can be debunked.

Q: What areas of healthcare do you think have seen the greatest advances or ROI from the use of predictive analytics?

A: We are on the CUSP of leveraging the mountain of data in medicine and will look back at this era and ask, “WHAT TOOK SO LONG?!” We should expect to see massive improvement across all specialties in population health. How can a primary care physician keep track of 1500-2000 patients (or more)?

Q: Sneak preview: Please tell us a take-away that you will provide during your talk at Predictive Analytics World.

A: No-shows may not have an 80-20 Pareto Principle, but they do have a 60-10 rule.