SAS
Salford Systems
Pitney Bowes logo

Welcome to the REVISED
Predictive Analytics Times Newsletter:

We are pleased to provide our second Predictive Analytics Times Newsletter:

Our goal is to present industry relevant content to professionals in predictive analytics and related fields. If you find The PA Times useful, we would appreciate you sharing the newsletter with your industry peers. Additionally, we'd love your feedback. We cannot improve without hearing from you. So feel free to contact me directly with any thoughts or suggestions.

Thank you for taking the time to read The PA Times July 2012 newsletter.

Best Regards,

Adam Kahn Adam Kahn
Chief Operating Officer
Rising Media, Inc.

 

Not Subscribed? Sign Up For The Predictive Analytics Times Newsletter:

* required

* *
*


  • Next Gen Market Research Guru Interview with Jeff Jonas of IBM
  • SAS® On-Demand Webinar - How-To: Effectively Realize Data Visualization
  • Online Course: Predictive Analytics Applied – On demand any time
  • What Do Data Miners Need to Learn?
  • Workshop: Predictive Analytics Training in Brazil - July 26-27 in São Paulo
  • ANALYTICS SOFTWARE: Salford Systems - Predictive Modeler
  • Predictive Analytics for Business – July in Brazil, Oct in San Francisco
  • Moneyball Marketing: How Predictive Marketing Changes the Game
Predictive Analytics World

Big Data, Text Analytics and Privacy
Jeff is IBM Distinguished Engineer and Chief Scientist IBM Entity Analytics.

My work focuses on people, organizations, things, places - call these "entities" - things that can be uniquely counted. The analytics part refers to making sense of entity data. Detecting that the employee a retailer hired had previously been arrested for stealing from the same retailer would be an example of entity analytics. My work involves doing this in real time, so organizations can avoid making such blunders in the first place.

Read the whole interview here

SAS
Predictive Analytics World Online Training

Course outline, sneak preview, discount offers and registration

I've been asked by several folks recently what they need to learn to succeed in data mining and predictive analytics. This is a different twist on the question I also get, namely what degree should one get to be a good (albeit "green") data miner. Usually, the latter question gets the answer "it doesn't matter" because I know so many great data miners without a statistics or mathematics degree. Understandably, there are many non-stats/math degrees that have a very strong statistics or mathematics component, such as psychology, political science, and engineering to name a few. But then again, you don't necessarily have to load up on the stats/math courses in these disciplines either.

So the question of "what to learn" applies across majors whether undergraduate or graduate. Of course statistics and machine learning courses are directly applicable. However, the answer I've been giving recently to the question what do new data miners need to learn (assuming they will learn algorithms) have centered around two other topics: databases and business.

I had no specific coursework or experience in either when I began my career. In the 80s, databases were not as commonplace in the DoD world where I began my career; we usually worked with flat files provided to us by a customer, even if these files were quite large. Now, most customers I work with have their data stored in databases or data marts, and as a result, we data miners often must lean on DBAs or an IT layer of people to get at the data. This would be fine except that (1) the data that is provided to data miners is often not the complete data we need or at least would like to have before building models, (2) we sometimes won't know how valuable data is until we look at it, and (3) communication with IT is often slow and laden with political issues inherent in many organizations.

On the other hand, IT is often reticent to give analysts significant freedom to query databases because of the harm they can do (wise!) because data miners have in general a poor understanding of how databases work and which queries are dangerous or computationally expensive.

Predictive Analytics World Boston

Therefore, I am becoming more of the opinion that a masters program in data mining, or a data mining certificate program should contain at least one course on databases, which should contain at least some database design component, but for the most part should emphasize a users perspective). It is probably more realistic to require this for a degree than a certificate, but could be included in both. I know that for me, in considering new hires, this would be provide a candidate an advantage for me if he or she had SQL or SAS experience.

For the second issue, business experience, there are some that might be concerned that "experience" is too narrow for a degree program. After all, if someone has experience in building response models, what good would that do for Paypal if they are looking for building fraud models? My reply is "a lot"! Building models on real data (meaning messy) to solve a real problem (meaning identifying a target variable that conveys the business decision to be improved) requires a thought process that isn't related to knowing algorithms or data.

Building "real-world" models requires a translation of business objectives to data mining objectives (as described in the Business Understanding section of CRISP-DM, pdf here). When I have interviewed young data miners in the past, it is those who have had to go through this process that are better prepared to begin the job right away, and it is those who recognize the value here who do better at solving problems in a way that impacts decisions rather than finding cool, innovative solutions that never see the light of day.

My challenge to the universities who are adding degree programs in data mining and predictive analytics, or are offering Certificate programs, is then to include courses on how to access data (databases), and how to solve problems (business objectives, perhaps by offering a practicum with a local company).

Dean Abbott is President of Abbott Analytics in San Diego, California. Mr. Abbott has over 21 years of experience applying advanced data mining, data preparation, and data visualization methods in real-world data intensive problems, including fraud detection, risk modeling, text mining, response modeling, survey analysis, planned giving, and predictive toxicology. In addition, Mr. Abbott serves as chief technology officer and mentor for start-up companies focused on applying advanced analytics in their consulting practices. Mr. Abbott is a frequent speaker and workshop instructor at Predictive Analytics World.

Register Now!
Predictive Analytics Workshop

Salford Systems

Predictive Analytics for Business

Moneyball Marketing

Even though I played baseball for seven years as a child, I was always that kid.... you know which kid I am referring to – the one in the outfield throwing his glove in the air, chasing bugs and butterflies, and waiting for something.... anything to happen. My dislike for baseball most likely resulted from boredom and my general lack of interest and talent. However, after watching Moneyball last November I could not help but fall in love with the game. Moneyball provides a nexus where past and future collide between professional sports and predictive analytics – making both subjects more interesting to the masses. Just as Moneyball has transformed the professional sports industry, there is an equally powerful impact from the application of predictive analytics to digital marketing – Predictive Marketing.

Moneyball Marketing
During Adobe's Digital Marketing Summit in Salt Lake City in March 2012, I outlined the value proposition and associated solutions in a presentation entitled, Moneyball Marketing: How Predictive Marketing Changes the Game. By leveraging predictive marketing, marketers can eliminate the guesswork in marketing and take a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to optimization. Predictive marketing empowers a digital marketer with the ability to essentially change the future of their business. Though marketers face competing marketing budgets and fierce competition within their industry, predictive marketing provides a means for leveling the playing field.

In Moneyball, Peter Brand (Jonah Hill) explains to Billy Beane (Brad Pitt), the General Manager of the Oakland A's, that "there is an epidemic failure within the game to understand what is really happening and this leads people

who run major league baseball teams to misjudge their players and mismanage their teams." The digital marketer faces a similar challenge –

"There is an epidemic failure within digital marketing to understand what is really happening and this leads people who run digital marketing programs to misjudge their customers and mismanage their businesses." Predictive marketing offers the cure to almost every ill-informed analysis and poorly managed optimization effort by unearthing hidden patterns in large sets of data and providing foresight for future decisions. Predictive marketing provides the marketer with the ability to intelligently interact with their customers at every stage of engagement – disrupting past web performance with unprecedented levels of success.

Spring Training – Success Story
By not really understanding what has happened as well as what will happen, digital marketers are ill-equipped to capitalize on future opportunities and mitigate future risks with customers and their businesses. Base For example, a leading technology partnered with Adobe's Predictive Analytics Consulting team to help them build a predictive model that would forecast traffic levels and identify the primary acquisition levers that they could "pull" that would have the greatest expected impact on future traffic levels.
Weeks before Black Friday / onday, the model forecasted a 20% decline in year-over-year traffic (back-testing of the model showed 98.9% accuracy) during their biggest sales season of the year. Rather than waiting to receive a report on performance after Black Friday / Cyber Monday, a proactive approach to optimization was taken. In an effort to increase the expected traffic levels, the key stakeholders for each marketing channel along with Adobe Consulting met and strategically planned initiatives to take advantage of those traffic acquisition levers that had been previously identified. By implementing every initiative with Adobe SiteCatalyst tags, we were able to measure the incremental impact of our efforts. Though economic and competitive factors hampered demand for this company's products, we were still able to increase the year-over-year traffic from a forecasted 20% decline to an actual 8% decline – leading to $2.5M in incremental revenue in two days. This is but one of many applications for predictive marketing.

What Is Predictive Marketing, Really? What is Predictive Marketing?
Many of you have probably heard of "predictive analytics" and may be wondering what the difference is between "predictive analytics" and "predictive marketing".
Moneyball Marketing
While predictive analytics can be applied to a wide range of fields and industries (e.g., supply chain, security intelligence, real estate, professional sports, sales and CRM, marketing, insurance, etc.), predictive marketing represents the direct application of predictive analytics to the needs and challenges of the marketer. As the leader in predictive marketing, Adobe seeks to empower digital marketers with the ability to make intelligent, forward-looking decisions through automation, visualization and user experience innovations coupled with powerful predictive models. The Benefits of Predictive Marketing
Predictive marketing provides value to everyone from analysts to technology experts to web content managers in all industries. For the advertiser trying to identify which variables are most predictive of increased CTR (click-through rate), predictive marketing provides a solution. However, publishers can leverage predictive marketing to forecast advertising inventory for future periods. The following table represents some examples of the types of challenges solved by predictive marketing for different types of digital marketers:
Challenges Solved with Predictive Marketing
The Aberdeen Group recently published an article entitled Predictive Analytics for Sales and Marketing: Seeing Around Corners that outlines the significant benefits that come to those organizations that apply data mining and statistical modeling to optimize marketing efforts. Predictive marketing drives as much as 2X lift from marketing campaigns, 76% higher click-through rate, and 73% higher sales lift.
The Aberdeen Group Predictive marketing represents the next phase of analytics and optimization for digital marketers. For more on Predictive Marketing from Adobe, please visit http://blogs.adobe.com/digitalmarketing/ or follow us on Twitter (@AdobeDigMktg).

John Bates, Product Manager – Predictive Marketing Solutions, Adobe Systems, Inc
Twitter: @JohnBBates     Email: [email protected]
The Aberdeen Group
Share |